grandepequeno [he/him]

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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: September 24th, 2023

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  • From what I understand I’m going to try to spitball some possible scenarios for the future in Syria, I’m not gonna bother attributing probabilities to them cos fuck if I know.

    This is all based on the assumption that the rebel and oppositions groups are not 100% beholden to US/Israel interests, the guy they had on Radio War Nerd stated that this offensive was most likely a rebel initiative, and that their backers in Turkey were not itching to depose Assad immediately.

    -Islamist rebels and opposition groups manage to stabilize the country, islamists make some deal with the kurds so they don’t have to fight

    -Rebels attempt to break into kurd territory (civil war)

    -Infighting among rebel groups escalates (civil war)

    -Israel and turkey say fuck it and both annex whatever chunk of syrian land they want

    -Rebels make some type of deal with Iran, for example allowing the land bridge to lebanon to continue in exchance for non-interference

    -Rebels keep their sectarianism and al-qaeda past in check and don’t commit many serious massacres or sectarian discrimination

    -Rebels are literally al-qaeda in syria and commit many serious massacres and sectarian discrimination

    -Assad is still alive and does government in exile, either gets abandoned by every ally as they recognize the rebel government or doesn’t, no in-between.

    -Rebels do 9/11 for russia or iran as reprisal for backing assad.

    -Iraq scenario: Unstable and impoverished country that nevertheless manages to keep civil war at bay, becomes political battle ground for american and iranian proxies

    -Afghanistan scenario: Rebel government is left mostly alone but is too politically unseemly to be fully integrated into the “rules based order”

    -Libya scenario: Eventually another civil war

    -New scenario: Syria becomes a total US/Israel proxy

    If anyone want to add to this be my guest