return2ozma@lemmy.world to United States | News & Politics@lemmy.ml · 3 months agoHarris and Trump are tied in 538's new polling averagesabcnews.go.comexternal-linkmessage-square19fedilinkarrow-up137arrow-down17
arrow-up130arrow-down1external-linkHarris and Trump are tied in 538's new polling averagesabcnews.go.comreturn2ozma@lemmy.world to United States | News & Politics@lemmy.ml · 3 months agomessage-square19fedilink
minus-squareatzanteol@sh.itjust.workslinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up11arrow-down3·3 months ago 538 had Hillary beating Trump in 2016. No they didn’t. They had Hillary with something like a 60% chance of winning. That’s not “had Hillary beating Trump” that’s “Hillary was more likely to win than Trump.”
minus-squareBen Hur Horse Race@lemm.eelinkfedilinkarrow-up4·3 months agoI dont have proof, but I believe it was a hell of a lot higher than 60％
minus-squarePowerCrazy@lemmy.mllinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up6arrow-down1·3 months agoIt was. IIRC, it got up to almost 90% in mid October. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
minus-squareatzanteol@sh.itjust.workslinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up4arrow-down1·3 months agoIt wasn’t 100%. It’s a forecast not a premonition.
minus-squareDogPeePoo@lemm.eelinkfedilinkarrow-up4arrow-down2·edit-23 months agoSure, Jan You know how the internet works, right? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ Don’t miss the forest for the trees. The point being— polls are shit 💩 GET OUT AND VOTE!!!
minus-squareatzanteol@sh.itjust.workslinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up6arrow-down1·3 months agoYou know how probability works right? No, of course you don’t. Almost nobody does…
minus-squarePheonixdown@lemm.eelinkfedilinkarrow-up3·3 months agoSome of us play XCOM, 95% chance to hit might as well be 0% when you need 100%, usually means it’s time for a grenade.
minus-squareatzanteol@sh.itjust.workslinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up1arrow-down1·3 months agoHah! Excellent example. 😆
No they didn’t. They had Hillary with something like a 60% chance of winning. That’s not “had Hillary beating Trump” that’s “Hillary was more likely to win than Trump.”
I dont have proof, but I believe it was a hell of a lot higher than 60％
It was. IIRC, it got up to almost 90% in mid October. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
It wasn’t 100%. It’s a forecast not a premonition.
Sure, Jan
You know how the internet works, right?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Don’t miss the forest for the trees.
The point being— polls are shit 💩
GET OUT AND VOTE!!!
You know how probability works right? No, of course you don’t. Almost nobody does…
Some of us play XCOM, 95% chance to hit might as well be 0% when you need 100%, usually means it’s time for a grenade.
Hah! Excellent example. 😆