• OccamsTeapot@lemmy.world
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    8 months ago

    Really? What about 2020

    Almost all correctly predicted a Biden win. We don’t need the precise number just the general lay of the land

    • whotookkarl@lemmy.world
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      8 months ago

      There were plenty of predictions that got the winner right, but the amount that accurately predicted the ~51/47 are much fewer and I believe the rarity is an indicator that accurate prediction is not as clear and straight forward as some may expect even with statistical training.

      • OccamsTeapot@lemmy.world
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        8 months ago

        For me it’s not so much about the specific number and more “Who will win” and it definitely seems like polls do that quite well, even 8 months out etc as you mentioned before.

        I think expecting precise accuracy is quite a high bar. The only real test is the election if that is your stance, and by then it’s too late to do anything about it