After last week’s debate disaster, some Democrats are trying to circle the wagons to protect President Biden, noting that Barack Obama lost his first debate as an incumbent president, too.
But this one doesn’t pass the smell test. Mr. Obama wasn’t 81 years old at the time of his debate debacle. And he came into the debate as a strong favorite in the election, whereas Mr. Biden was behind (with just a 35 percent chance of winning).
A 35 percent chance is not nothing. But Mr. Biden needed to shake up the race, not just preserve the status quo. Instead, he’s dug himself a deeper hole.
Looking at polls beyond the straight horse-race numbers between Mr. Biden and Donald Trump — ones that include Democratic Senate candidate races in close swing-state races — suggests something even more troubling about Mr. Biden’s chances, but also offers a glimpse of hope for Democrats.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
There are five presidential swing states that also have highly competitive Senate races this year: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In those states, there have been 47 nonpartisan surveys conducted since Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump emerged as their parties’ clear nominees in March.
Sources: BSG/GS; The Bullfinch Group; Cygnal; Data Orbital; EPIC-MRA; Emerson College; Fabrizio, Lee & Associates; Florida Atlantic University; Franklin & Marshall; Marist College; Marquette University Law School; Mitchell Research & Communications; Muhlenberg; The New York Times/Siena College; Noble Predictive Insights; North Star Opinion Research; Quinnipiac; RABA Research; The Tyson Group; YouGov.
That might call for someone like Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, who would at least project quiet Midwestern competence compared with Mr. Trump.
And if the party really wanted to show itself to be the adults in the room, it could nominate Vice President Kamala Harris, whose approval ratings are now notably less bad than her boss’s.
Poker players like me, and the accomplished risk-takers from astronauts to venture capitalists I’ve talked to for my research, understand the importance of working with incomplete information.
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