If you are keeping score at home, you have surely noticed that the two most important defense officials in Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet — Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and the former military chief of staff Benny Gantz — warned last week that Netanyahu is leading Israel into a disastrous abyss by refusing to present any plan for non-Hamas Palestinians to govern Gaza and appears to be contemplating a long-term Israeli military occupation of Gaza instead. Gantz said he would leave the government if there was no plan by June 8.
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“Netanyahu’s acquiescence to the extreme right, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, has generally been seen as motivated out of his need to keep his coalition together and himself out of jail,” Friedman told me. “Now it seems that he has willingly sold his soul to the extreme right. One explanation is that the extreme religious right projects a Messianic image onto him that corresponds with his own sense of having been called to save Israel and the Jewish people. He has a plan for the day after and it’s very clear to anyone who listens: ‘Total victory’ — and eventually the return of Jewish settlement there. Israel is on the way to reoccupying Gaza.”
If that happens, Israel will become an international pariah and Jewish institutions everywhere will be torn between Jews who will feel the need to defend Israel — right or wrong — and those who, with their kids, will find it indefensible.
Make no mistake, Bibi is doing all of this knowing that a Trump victory will give him the carte blanche permission he needs to annex Gaza, and so the political damage this is doing to Biden is just icing on the cake. He has made this much clear by inviting Trump’s lackeys to peacock for the Knesset. Friedman isn’t alone in thinking that Biden’s playing checkers while Bibi is playing chess, but even if Biden made a 180 and took a hard stance against what’s happening, two things would be virtually guaranteed:
He would be ruthlessly lambasted as an antisemite by the AIPAC-endorsed left and all of the right, and lose the Jewish vote in every swing state, handing the election to Trump in a landslide.
Bibi would ignore him just like he ignored the Israeli left, the Supreme Court, and now his own Defense Minister.
This is looking more and more like an Iranian masterclass in subterfuge which began during the Obama years, and which Trump unwittingly supercharged.
Edit to Add
This piece really puts a very complicated, multi-decade process into much clearer focus. For anyone who’s been flabbergasted at how awful this situation is, and who suspects that there’s something deeper and more sinister going on, these are the major points that have been highlighted behind the paywall:
Why did Israel/Bibi secretly help fund Hamas for all those years? Because it destabilized Gaza and made a 2-state solution less likely.
Why did Hamas act so brazenly if they were so militarily outgunned? If they knew the reaction would be disproportionate? Because they weren’t calling the shots, and they were useful pawns for Iran.
Why has the reaction been so unreasonably bloodthirsty? Because Bibi is facing possible jail time and knows a strong alliance with the bloodthirsty far-right is his only means to avoid it. Their votes are all that’s keeping him a free man.
Why does Biden trust Netanyahu so much? Even after his lurch to the right and during a staggering onslaught of civilians? Because he knows AIPAC will sink his reelection if he takes a stand, and the risk of nuclear war will rise considerably if he loses.
Why has Netanyahu flatly refused to negotiate with Abbas and the Fatah-led PA? Why does there seem to be no “what’s next” plan? Because the far-right wants to annex Gaza, not coexist with the Palestinians. The Supreme Court tried to get them to stop the annexation of the West Bank, and Bibi’s far-right coalition neutered the Court in response.
Why are US politicians so blind to all of this? Many of them are too old to have seen the ground shift beneath them, and don’t see the Israel you and I see.
Why is Netanyahu kissing Trump’s ass? Because Iran is days/weeks away from becoming a nuclear power, and he thinks Trump is willing to nuke them to stop it.
None of this timeline could play out if Bibi willingly negotiated a post-Hamas ruling coalition. He won’t stop the onslaught because his far-right cohorts have already decided that the end game is complete annexation of disputed territory, and Iran has forced them into that corner because they knew Bibi’s coalition was dumb enough to go full bore. This ends with complete isolation of Israel on the world’s stage one way or another, and all Iran had to do was fund a small band of murderous ideologues for a few decades to set the stage for a final showdown.
We are weeks/months away from a nuclear standoff in the middle east.
So Biden is essentially a dead man walking? No matter how much it terrifies me, I just don’t see him winning through all these disputes while the right is unified. This is exactly what they needed, and the right is exactly what Israel needs. What are we to do, the American People, when we’re caught in the crossfire?
My friend, I wish I knew. The more I learn about this timeline, the darker our future becomes. There’s a reason Putin, Bibi, and the Ayatollah all have their pedals to the metal right now, and it’s not because they sense that America is on the up and up.
If what seems likely comes to pass, by next January Project 2025 will begin the wholesale dismantling of our federal bureaucracy, Republicans will hold the Senate, Trump will lay out the red carpet for Putin to attack NATO by refusing to honor Article 5, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito will orchestrate their successors, abortion will be banned at 12 weeks nationwide, Obergefell will be overturned, and future US elections will not run the way they’ve been run before. If we have a legitimate chance of winning the Oval Office in 2028, I’ll be absolutely shocked. None of this is outlandish or far-fetched, and people have bragged openly about most of it.
For what it’s worth, the far left is absolutely correct. It’s a genocide, and we’re complicit. We’ve funded too many genocides in the past for this to be ok in any way, shape, or form. But also, the center-left is absolutely correct. It’s a multi-polar world now, and Bibi already has the blank check he needs. If Biden backs down, he’ll be slaughtered at the polls. What comes after will absolutely be worse.
One of the reasons Hitler was able to do what he did was that the far-left KPD turned on the center-left SPD under the banner of “anti-fascism”. The SPD tried to unify with the KPD after the elections of 1930, but the deal was rejected. The KPD routinely got about 10% of the German vote in the Weimar Republic. In 1933 the Nazis came to power and banned the KPD on day one. Then they blamed the KPD for the Reichstag fire, and suspended civil liberties in response. The Weimar Republic collapsed, and the rest is history.
If the far left and the center left can’t find commonality under a shared vision for the future, I think we’re all about to be fed to the wolves.
Oh man that’s a statement that just barely scratches the surface.
As someone that has bounced around from politics, to advanced earth sciences, to the arts and now just keeps learning new things because I can’t help it… Yeah, things aren’t looking so good.
Humans will prevail and all that but we are slamming head first into a wall of spikes that is going to be and already is starting to be a giant crushing destructionary force for all of what we think of as normal.
Everyone hates the people calling for change when they feel comfortable where it is but if you are calling for change to go backwards to when you felt even more comfortable somehow that always wins, and we go barreling towards fascism from it.
The first cause of the left must always be domestic anti fascism. Not out of a nationalistic sense, but out of raw practicality. When fascists gain power everything else we believe in is thrown away
What are we to do?
Vote for Biden. He’s no guarantee for the Palestinians, that is true. The alternative is confirmed annihilation of Palestinians and Ukrainians, as well as occupation of Taiwan.
And click one more ratchet to the right.
They don’t need to beat us, y’all are slowly but surely doing that for them
Yeah. Just another little step.
The question is: Is there a legitimate other option?
No fantasy perfect scenario world, or all people being made to be better and more caring. As is, can we come up with a solution, a driving force, even a solid nudge to alter course and direction, so that this impact doesn’t slam into us no matter what, accepting that the inertia is already behind it.
I say this fully knowing that Biden does little other than to appease the upper class corporate interests that be and keep everything feeling on track so that it feels like someone else’s problem to anyone above it.
But fuck me, I can’t think of an out that doesn’t involve fantastical imagination at this point.
Like the violent revolution of the progressives against a Trump-run government, through the masses of militant local and state police officers, and bloodthirsty and loyal right wingers?
Extremist progressives certainly aren’t the mathematicians of the left.
I mean historically we can see how well the people rise up to stop the national Fascist party.
People like money and feeling comfortable and it doesn’t matter how many necks must be stepped on for most.
We over assume that the empathetic humans are the ones that make up the majority. We are right they are mostly non violent but people are easy to turn a blind eye.
So yeah, can’t expect that so what can we do? I’m at bake cakes and see if I ever get a chance to kill a Nazi and be put to the firing squad.
I’ll get banned for this but we need to show up at Trump’s shit and boo him and demand he be thrown in jail, he needs extreme heat and the same right wing tactics shoved up his ass. We also need to put aside our differences as leftists and decide what is more important: keeping Trump at bay or stopping Israeli support. If you chose one right now, the other doesn’t happen. We are in the most fucked up situation. I don’t blame people for rejecting it and wanting different options. But what they need to realize is Biden can be held accountable even if he wins this election. Trump will make sure nobody in power is ever held accountable again.
The protests (both on campus and in primary voting) and continuing electoral concerns were what got Biden to his current not-100% support of genocide. It isn’t like there’s an irrevocable switch pulled right now that chooses between “Palestine” or “Biden”. He can be pushed to improve now, which will in turn help his election. You can’t look at the past 6 months and think protest doesn’t work.
I don’t believe he will be held accountable.
It doesn’t help that he has his own bunch of magats that will support him no matter what.
I honestly believe that Biden could rape a toddler on video, while holding up his id and giving his full social security number, and there are still a good chunk of people that would vote for him
Instead, he’s getting ruthlessly lambasted as a genocider by significant Muslim populations in swing states, losing their vote, and handing the election to Trump in the Electoral College.
Yep, so now you see why he’s not budging. He loses either way. My guess is he’s trying to thread the needle by counting on the Jewish, pro-Israel voting block being more valuable (i.e. larger) than the pro-Palestine left wing. Could also be that he knows Trump presents an existential crisis not just for everyone on the left, but also for many center-right voters who are already talking about swinging for Biden. He might (or might not) have good reason to. More likely, I think, he’s counting on the fact that young people care more about Gaza than old people, and young people consistently have the lowest turnout of any age group. It’s a hedge, to be sure, but apparently one they think they have to make.
And in the meantime children die. What a stupid world.
I didn’t say it was fair or good. Just that this is the situation we find ourselves in.
I know enough history to be used to not being able to vote not to kill children.
If I were presented with a choice to murder a child to avoid 100% certain nuclear Armageddon, I would murder the child. If I were presented with a choice to murder a child to avoid 1% certain nuclear Armageddon, I probably wouldn’t. Where the rest of us fall between those extremes is up for debate, and it seems to me like that’s how the administration is rationalizing it. Apparently to them the stakes (for the whole world) are just too high to change course.
I’d kill a kid to save an undetermined amount of people, but I would have the decency to kill myself as well
Ok.