I sure didn’t. I had elaborate ideas about how we could help the Ukrainians sink the black sea fleet on our behalf. And even then I figured we’d have to subsidize their insurance. Turns out they were just going to back down lol
Source Article (Forbes)
I have to admit that I rolled my eyes at the idea that Putin would start a war with Israel.
Israel per se has fuck all to do with this, to be honest. Attacking a foreign flagged civilian vessel is a big deal, especially when the eyes of the world are upon you and you cannot declare something to have happened on the fog of war. There’s an American P-8, which is an intelligence as well as an anti-ship/anti-sub plane, covering the ship. No one knows what it’s rules of engagement are, but the implication is that it’s there to defend the civilian ship. Attacking the US plane would be an act of war. Attacking the ship may trigger the American plane to defend it by launching weapons against the attacking vessel.
The one thing that the Russians could legitimately do is block the ship physically. They can play chicken by threatening to steer into it, but I can’t think that they’d risk widening the war at this point. No shade on Ukraine - this one is going to go down as one of the greatest victories in the history of warfare - but if they can’t make progress against Ukraine then NATO will go through them like crap through a goose.
Russia’s like sole lucid foreign policy moment was to recognize the grain deal was what gained it credibility for much of the world. The world is skeptical of the US screaming it’s head off about Russian imperialism and whatever but then Russia unilaterally ends the grain deal, destroys grain, pledges to blockade grain and drive up the price
Really hope Ukraine can correctly tell the world “we want to bring you grain but they won’t let us”
beyond that, this is like way more explicit than Obama’s “red line,” just a complete demonstration that you won’t do shit
I’ll admit while reading this I was quite concerned. NATO called Putin’s bluff and Putin looks like a fool. But what if the grain shipments had been sunken? Then NATO shoots fires at the Russian ships? And then what?
“What if” is irrelevant because they won’t but the “then what” is they would cry about that too and demand we stop doing that too and continue their impotent tantrum that the world continues to not let them do what they want to do, namely getting the Soviet Union back. Russia is impotent. Their threats don’t get them what they want. Their military doesn’t get them what they want. And most importantly, because I think I know where you’re going with this, their nukes do not get them what they want. Their nukes only get them dead, which is something Russia only wants to happen to a large subset of their population, notably not including their leadership, and nukes are very dangerous to them and not something they will ever consider because their lives depend on it. Their clandestine political activities almost got them what they want and worked in several other situations, and it makes sense that they will continue to exploit those as much as they are able to. Nukes are not actually on the table, no matter how much they shout about them.
