Even though most voters say that the case against the former president is “strong,” they don’t want to see him serving jail time
Even though most voters say that the case against the former president is “strong,” they don’t want to see him serving jail time
The section that says “Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income,
employment, education, political party, and political ideology where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.” kinda sticks out to me, too.
Yeah, that admission kind of makes me pause when considering the results. There should have been a page of the published poll that better described how this was taken. For instance, doing just a LAN line poll skews poll results considerably.
But it’s only the beginning of the fed case against Trump, so I’m sure opinion will change.
That’s how all reputable election polling was done in 2020. For example, if you take a random sample that happens to be 52% men and 48% women, it is completely appropriate to overweight the women’s responses to match their actual percentage in the US, 50.5%.
In fact, in the 2020 election there was a bunch of Trump supporters who had the same doubts as you, and they would “unskew” polls with 52% men responding to give them 52% of the final weighting. Lo and behold, their “unskewed” polls showed Trump in the lead. But the proof of the method is in the election results…